Golden fail on the Golden Goal

It was while reading the excellent Norwich City blog Sing Up The River End the other week that got me thinking back to the golden days of the Golden Goal cards at Carrow Road.
As a kid I used to watch the games and then wonder why they always read out the goal times and why, a couple of minutes later a couple of old boys in white coats would trudge around the ground holding up a board with the exact time of the goal displayed with plastic numbers on hooks. Fast forward a generation or so and I’ve got to say I’m hooked on the Golden Goal cards on sale at Carrow Road. Forget the punters gathering around the various outlets of Ladbrokes trying to guess the first goalscorer and correct score, I’d rather invest some cash in these rather addictive little scratch cards.
For the uninitiated, you for £1 you get two goal times, one in each half. Match the time of the first goal and you win £500. The prizes tail off dramatically after that – goal two secures a Freeview Box, goal three a signed football, and then it’s down to a £25 voucher, followed by a tenner if there’s a fifth goal or more.
But you also get a lucky number which wins you the man of the match’s signed shirt. That’s the bigger draw for me and I’ve developed a mini-obsession with trying to win it.
Normally I pick up a couple of cards – at £1 each, they make the perfect use of the £7 change I’d get from buying a programme with a tenner. I don’t eat or drink at the football and, rather than burning my lips on a Cornish Pasty (Ipswich at home, 2006) or scorching my mouth on a pie (Nottingham Forest away, 2001) or buying a beer (can I be the only man who at the age of 35 has never had a beer at a football match in England) I’d rather spend the cash on Golden Goal cards.
I’ve been so close on so many times – against Colchester last year (the 7-1) I was six seconds away from getting the opening goal time correct and twice this season I’ve missed out on the shirt by less than three numbers.
Last Saturday against Porstmouth I decided to go for it. I invested £20 in the cards, which I picked up from four different sellers around the ground. I made a note of the goal times and lucky numbers in my phone and scratched them off after the game.
I knew the lucky number was 0772 and that would win Wes Hoolahan’s signed shirt. After 19 unsuccessful cards I came to the last one, scratched it off really slowly and the first three numbers were ‘077’. My heart started to thump. From a one in a thousand chance I was down to a one in ten chance.
In more ways than one, I just needed a number two!
With one big brave scratch I scraped a way that last bit of silver foil to reveal a number.... four.
Damn you Golden Goal cards, you’ll be the death of me until I win, but I’ll keep on going!

Norwich v Ipswich betting tips

My fabulous weekend of sport started last Thursday with the NFL Thanksgiving triple header and shows no signs of slowing down. The Ashes are on to keep cricket fans happy, there’s rugby everywhere, loads of great football matches on, a big clash in Spain and a local derby to look forward to – there could be some very tired people come Tuesday morning!
Lets’ kick off with the Norwich v Ipswich derby this lunchtime. It’s a 1.15pm kick off and it’s live on BBC One if you can’t make it to Carrow Road.
It was only May of last year that the two sides last met – but that was so long ago that Bryan Gunn and Jim Magilton were in opposing dugouts. Ipswich will go into Sunday’s game with a run of three straight defeats, while Norwich have four straight draws.
So both teams are hardly picking up the points after relatively good starts – and that suggests the derby is probably heading for a draw. I’m certainly not going to back either side to win as they’re always so hard to predict and I don’t want to start making statements about form books and windows.
Norwich are 6/5 favourites which is unsurprising as they’re at home. Ipswich are around 5/2 for the win, with the draw at around 12/5.
What it is safe to say is that recent derby games have turned up some unusual scorers. In the last ten derbys we’ve had a brace from Malky Mackay, goals from the likes of Jimmy Juan, Jonatan Johansson, Luke Chadwick, David Wright, Ched Evans, Matty Pattison, David Mooney, Alan Quinn and Giovanni dos Santos.
Loan players and unlikely scorers often become derby day heroes, so instead of predicting the score in this one, it’s better to enjoy the game, cheer on your side and have a wager on some players to get on the scoresheet at long odds.
Norwich are sure to give a debut to loan signing Henri Lansbury who netted for Watford against Town last season. Take him at 5/1 with Paddy Power to net at anytime and also go for on loan centre half Leon Barnett to net at 10/1 with Bet 365. He netted last week against Leeds and is a real powerful presence at corners.
For Ipswich, I’d take Jack Colback at 13/2 and Tommy Smith at 20/1, both with Bet 365.
The last derby game to end 0-0 was the last one of the 20th century, in the 13 meetings since then there has been an average of 3.27 goals in these games, so take the over 2.5 goals at evens with Bet 365.
Enjoy the game.

* Article originally appeared in Evening Star on Friday. Find my betting tips in there each Friday.

Championship betting preview

I hope you’ve well and truly trashed your vuvuzela by now as onFriday night at Carrow Road the new npower Championship kicks off and it looks like being another wide open race at the top of the table.
I actually fancy one of three teams to win the title and they’re in a shortlist of most bookies top five teams with the shortest odds. The other two on that list I wouldn’t touch with a bargepole.
First up, I fancy favourites Middlesbrough.
Cast your mind back 12 months to this very same column and I predicted both Boro and Sheffield United would be going up.
It didn’t happen last season, but you can’t ignore Boro this time out. Last season Gareth Southgate’s poor start and some bad home form pretty much ended their promotion hopes before the clocks went back, but under Gordon Strachan, Boro stabilised themselves well towards the end of the season.
Boro are best priced 7/1 for the title with Stan James and I suggest that’s a good price. The signing of Kris Boyd is an excellent bit of business – I think he could have found a place in any team in the bottom half of the Premier League so to see him pitch up at the Riverside is great news for the Teesiders.
Boyd alone won’t take Boro up, but a proven goalscorer like him is who Boro have been crying out for over the last couple of seasons and with the likes of Leroy Lita and Scott McDonald too, Boro have some decent ammunition.
The second side I fancy to go up are Burnley, who are as short as 8/1 with some bookies, but you can still get on them at 11/1 with Sky Bet.
Burnley have managed to hang on to their entire Premier League squad so far, although rumours suggest Chris Eagles will move on before the end of next month. They played some great football at times last season and once Brian Laws gets them back in the regular winning mentality I think they’ll prove a match for most of the division.
I like Wade Elliot, Martin Paterson and Brian Jensen and I see a team that will be hard to beat, tough across the middle and full of goals. Plus they’ve got a serious slice of parachute payments to keep them going through the tough winter.
If they can keep the late summer vultures away from Turf Moor, this is a squad that could well be in the top flight again come August 2011.
The third side is Reading, a team who impressed towards the end of the season under Brian McDermott, another team who’ve hung on to their players and who nearly made the play-offs last season.
I am a big Reading fan and think they boast real quality, but again, they’ve got the same problem several of the decent sides at this level have – if they start well their players are natural targets for the teams at the foot of the Premier League. I’m thinking in particular Shane Long, a player I really rate – can Reading hang on to him all season?
Surely if they’re in the top two at Christmas Long as well as Jimmy Kebe and Jobi McAnuff will hang around. And why not? Why go and join a Wigan or Birmingham to scrap against the drop when you could be their yourself next season?
I’m making Boro, Burnley and Reading my three for the title and such are the odds you can back all three and still make a decent profit.
There’s always a couple of teams who fail to live up to the pre-season hype – last season I’m afraid it was Ipswich. This season I intend to swerve Nottingham Forest and QPR like a crunching Mark van Bommel tackle.
Forest flattered themselves towards the end of the season with their run to the play-offs and were rightly dumped out by a superb Blackpool side. It’s never easy for a team to be beaten like that to return in August with the strength to do it all over again and I don’t see Forest having such a good season again.
I’ve stated on a regular basis my feelings for Lee Camp – he is a complete clown of a keeper and when I hear talk of him playing for England I wonder if I’m missing something. Every time I watch him he does something wrong and for that one reason alone I could never back Forest to do anything. William Hill have them down at 7/1 to win the title. Forget it.
Same for QPR, who are around 9/1 with most bookies. We’ve been down this road so many times with Rangers in recent years. They’ve got the cash (apparently), they’ve got a decent manager, they’ve got this, they’ve got that. What they never do is seriously damage the top of the table and I don’t see anything changing.
Money doesn’t buy titles in this league, it’s a mixture of a decent midfield, a proven goalscorer and a defense that can take no prisoners. Rangers need a complete overhaul if they are to get out of this league and their squad is simply not even near good enough at the moment.
Avoid them like the plague.

PLAY-OFFS: Having dismissed Forest and QPR for the title, they are possible for the top ten and therefore they could still get promotion. But I don’t want to back either of them at 11/4 (Forest) or 4/1 (Rangers). I’ve given you the three teams I think will get promoted – Burnley and Reading are 4/1 to get promotion (be it automatically or via the play-offs) and Boro are 9/4.
But for a bit of variety I think it does no harm to stick a couple of longer shots in the mix. All we’re really looking for are teams that can make the top six. Last season Blackpool were a huge 25/1 to get promoted so sniffing down the lower reaches, Doncaster at 20/1 could be worth a punt, but more realistically, I would like to be on both Hull and Portsmouth.
I know they’ve both come down from the top flight and I know they’ve both got money troubles, but they’ve still got decent squads and, yes that may change before the transfer window changes, but I would rather back proven talent than hyped-up wannabes.
Pompey – with David Nugent likely to lead the line - are a juicy 9/1 with Sky Bet to go up, while Hull are 13/2 with Bet 365. Take it from me, if they’re in the top six come May those prices won’t be anything like that.
If you don’t fancy QPR for the title and you’ve got the bottle, you can lay Rangers on Betfair at around 4/1 to go up – I’m doing exactly that so if you want to get on it, well, you’ll be in good company!

RELEGATION: Do yourself a favour and get on Watford for the drop right now. Money troubles mean they’ve been forced to lose some of their better players like Jay DeMerit and Jon Harley, they probably won’t get the likes of Henri Lansbury and Tom Cleverly back on loan from Arsenal and Manchester United, and have Danny Graham as their only real striker. A thin squad who’ve had a poor pre-season – it doesn’t look good for Malky Mackay’s Hornets at all. William Hill make them 11/4 for the drop, which is like buying money. Get on them before Friday as I think they may get an opening day tonking at the hands of Norwich.
Crystal Palace are the same 11/4 odds with William Hill and Scunthorpe, now minus Gary Hooper, are the shortest price side to go down at 15/8.
Portsmouth are 2/1 with Hills, but I would lay that all day long. A club like Pompey is a magnet for investment and if things really are looking that bad I say it’s far more likely they would get rescued than a Scunthorpe or Barnsley.
Take Watford and Palace as potential sides to go down but for slightly longer odds, something tells me the 10/1 on Leeds going down isn’t that bad a shout.
Leeds should have walked League One last season but really struggled to get out of that division and, despite their FA Cup heroics, I don’t really feel that Simon Grayson’s side are going to hit the ground running in the Championship.
I predict a slow start at Elland Road and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Leeds in the bottom six all season. For that reason, the 10/ 1 on them going down needs to be taken.

TOP SCORER: It’s never easy picking the top goalscorer in The Championship and this year doesn’t look any earlier. But given my choice of teams to win the league I have to say I fancy Scottish striker Kris Boyd at Ladbrokes’ 8/1 to run amok in the scoring charts this term.
Behind Boyd in the pecking order are the familiar names like Town target Michael Chopra (12/1) Nicky Maynard (14/1), Rob Earnshaw (25/1) and David Nugent (25/1).
As I’ve topped Burnley for the title, I think I’d be partial to a flutter on another Scot, Steven Thompson who is a huge 66/1 with Ladbrokes to be top scorer. They pay a quarter the price each way – and that’s ending up in the top four.
Bookmakers don’t see any East Anglian striker troubling the scoring stakes – Norwich’s Grant Holt, who may miss the start of the season, is 25/1 while Connor Wickham, who also may have to wait for first team action, is the highest priced Town player at 50/1.

IPSWICH/NORWICH: I don’t think we’re going to see anything dramatic happening at Portman Road and Carrow Road this season with the return of the local derby the only real highlight.
It’s impossible to predict Ipswich to do anything at the moment as they go into this season with an ever-growing injury list, seven or eight players who don’t have a future at the club, transfer targets who don’t seem to want to come and a manager who chops and changes his team on a regular basis.
It’s far more likely will see the same kind of form of last season which means Ipswich will be hard to beat but won’t cause teams major problems at the other end. Roy Keane’s contracted to stay at Portman Road until the end of this new season, but you know as well as I do that a poor start could see him out by November which suggest that any money on Ipswich to have a successful season is far too risky.
Up the A140 Norwich (7/1 for promotion) come into the division after a superb first half of 2010 and they’ve been one of the busiest teams in the Championship over the summer with half a dozen new signings.
Star front trio Wes Hoolahan, Chris Martin and Grant Holt have all played in the Championship before, but have spent more of their careers below it, which must be remembered.
Norwich are the opposite of Ipswich for me – good going forward, but leaky at the back and I don’t see either East Anglian side ending up in the top half. Both sides have too much about them to go down, but I don’t see any point in backing either for promotion.
Some bookies have split the 24 teams in the Championship into smaller groups and you can punt on certain teams to win each group. The groups are made of teams with similar prospects – so, for example, Coral have placed Ipswich and Norwich in a group with Cardiff, Leeds, Hull and Bristol City. Think Town can finish higher than those other five? Coral will give you 7/2 they do.

Nick's League One and League Two betting preview

The countdown to the new season is on - here are my picks for League One and League Two.

Cast your mind back 12 months and Leeds were sitting pretty as runaway 4/1 favourites to take the League One crown, and after a sublime autumn they were as short as 1/5 for the title at Christmas. That was when Norwich clicked into gear and the Canaries – who were as large as 12/1 after their opening day hammering from Colchester took over and took the honours.
Cast in the Leeds role this year are Southampton, one of a number of clubs who wear striped shirts that are destined to have a good season - and it’s not hard to see why with the south coast club.
Like Leeds they had their first season in the third tier for many years compromised by a points penalty but the Saints did well last season to make it to the top half and in the end the play-off places were just touch out of reach.
They’re an even shorter price than Leeds, starting the season at just 5/2 to make a return to the second tier after two seasons away from it.
Like last season, Southampton boast the favourite to be top scorer in Rickie Lambert and it’s not difficult to see him making mincemeat out of the opposing defenders, particularly considering the quality of opposition at the bottom of the League One table.
Lambert is just 9/2 with Sky Bet to be top scorer, but I fancy his strike partner Lee Barnard to get in on the goals and the 10/1 on the former Southend man looks a good price.
It could turn out to be a straight shoot out between these two for the top scorer prize and with Lambert longer odds to be top scorer than the Saints are to win the division, you’ve got to feel the value is in taking him at 9/2 rather than the team at 5/2.
Put it this way, I can’t see one happening without the other and Southampton’s rich attacking talent is certainly going to put them in the top three next season.
Sheffield Wednesday are available at 6/1 at Victor Chandler and although they play in stripes, I don’t see them putting in much of a challenge and fellow relegated sides Peterborough (12/1) and Plymouth (18/1) can forget it too.
A side I do like again are a team I backed last season and that’s, stripe-wearing Huddersfield. The Terriers are a nice 8/1 shot and they were one of the most impressive teams I saw play last time out.
Manager Lee Clark hasn’t got a bad team on his hands and a player I like is Lee Novak. Geordie Novak netted 12 goals last season for the free-scoring club – and when you factor in the goal threat of Theo Robinson and Jordan Rhodes you start to see a team that can do damage.
Norwich won the league last season with an impressive three-pronged attack of Wes Hoolahan, Grant Holt and Chris Martin and Huddersfield boast similar strike power.
Novak incidentally is a 25/1 shot to be top scorer making him a decent each way bet with Sky Bet who pay out on four places. Rhodes, a man familiar to Ipswich fans, isn’t a bad shout at 14/1.
I’ll be backing Huddersfield for the title as my main bet and having a sensible punt on Southampton to get the stake back on the Terriers. Southampton are going to be incredibly strong at home and are rightly favourites – but as we saw last season that favourites tag is a heavy burden for some.
There has been a history of longer odds teams winning this league in recent seasons – over the last six years the Champions have been an average of 18/1 for the title before a ball is kicked so for an outsider I’m plumping for the resurgent stripe-wearing Brighton.
Under the guidance of Gus Poyet, the Seagulls were a stable side last season and they’re sure to push on this time round. Bookies have wised up to the Poyet factor and made them as short as 10/1 for the title in some cases, although a more realistic 14/1 is generally available.
This is Brighton’s last season at the ghastly Withdean Stadium and the thinking is that when they take to the field at the new Falmer Stadium in August 2011, they could very well be in the Championship.
Stan James make the Seagulls 11/2 for promotion which I suggest backing. If they’re in the top half at Easter they’ve still got a chance at going up and compared to the likes of big-spending Notts County who are a similar price, they’ve got a lot more going for them.
County may have the cash, but Brighton have made good singings across the back four in solid Scottish defender Gordon Greer, Marcos Painter and Spaniard Inigo Calderon.
At the other end there are a whole host of teams who could drop down to the basement division – William Hill go around 9/4 on the likes of Dagenham, Exeter, Walsall, Hartlepool, Rochdale and Yeovil suggesting a real battle to stay up is on the cards.
One side I fancy to go down are Tranmere, who at 11/4 represent better odds. This whole thing with ex-physio Les Parry in charge doesn’t wash with me and a slow start for them could see Parry out and his successor left with a big task.
There’s usually a bigger team that struggles and, for a bit of fun I will be having a bit of the 8/1 on Charlton going down.
Having missed out on promotion last year they’ve paid the price by having their better players picked off by better teams, leaving Phil Parkinson’s men with a lot to do with a limited side. Nicky Bailey and Jonjo Shelvy have gone, they’ve got a tiny squad and they’ve boosted their defence by signing Norwich reject Gary Doherty!
Tough times for Parkinson indeed and a team to certainly consider backing to struggle. Believe it – they could very well go down.

Such are the odds in League Two this season that you can confidently back four or five teams and still make a profit. Last term I backed Rotherham, Bury, Rochdale and Notts County for the title so had plenty of interest throughout the season as that quartet spent most of the season inside the top six.
So who do you want as your big four this season?
Well with big-spending Notts County no longer a factor and free-scoring Rochdale gone, it’s Bradford again who are favourites for the title.
Peter Taylor’s team have been stuck in this basement division for the last four seasons but having recruited some decent players and finishing well last season, they’re worthy favourites at around 10/1. I’d suggest putting a quarter of your betting budget for this league on The Bantams – they’re the big fish in this league.
Relegated sides from League One struggled last time out, but this time I fancy both Gillingham and Wycombe, both formerly managed by Taylor, from the pack of sides at around 12/1 to bounce back.
Wycombe, now under the tutelage of QPR old boys Gary Waddock and Gareth Ainsworth, leaked goals in League One last season, but they play attractive football that should make them one of the best sides in this division to watch.
Plus they’ve been very busy in the transfer market, picking up new strikers Scott Rendell and Ben Strevens who are both highly valued in the lower leagues to add to the scoring power of main marksman Jon-Paul Pittman
Same goes for Gillingham, who are always strong at home. I’m putting another 25 per cent of my budget on these two teams. Gillingham’s main strike threat Simeon Jackson all but sealed a move to Norwich this week, but Canaries striker Cody McDonald is likely to go the other way in a one-year loan deal and, again, this really is a level he should shine at.
With Bradford, Gillingham and Wycombe backed, you’ll be looking at a decent payout if either takes the title, but split that last 25 per cent of your budget in half and have a punt on slightly longer shots Oxford (17/1) and Stevenage (18/1).
Oxford have the momentum coming into this league after their successful Blue Square Premier promotion last time out and Stevenage can continue the recent impact made by teams coming into League Two for the first time.
With those five teams backed, I think you’ll have plenty of interest all season long – and if favourites Bradford were to win for example, you’d still make a profit of seven times your stake.
Good luck!

Diego's boys to lift the World Cup

BETTING and the World Cup go hand in hand this summer with an unprecedented amount of pounds, dollars, euros, yen and rand being staked on the tournament across the globe.
So far £13.4 million has been staked on Betfair on the World Cup winner – but that’s just one market at one bookies in one country.
Magnify that amount by at least 1,000 and you’ve got an idea how much will be staked this summer – it runs into the billions, certainly more than the GDP of most countries in the world.
But the World Cup is not just about betting on who you think will win. There are hundreds of different markets for the casual punter to get a little more serious about – and then there are office sweepstakes, fantasy football teams and just having a bet with your mates or colleagues – all forms of gambling and all which offer decent prizes.
I reckon 49 per cent of people in this country are just interested in the football, 49 per cent are more interested in making money and the other two per cent are probably just hoping their random sweepstake pull comes up trumps.
My brother Andrew, a man who last went to a football match in 1987, called me the other week all excited about the fact he had drawn France in his office sweepstake.
He looked a little miffed when I told him they’ve got no chance of winning it. He looked close to tears when I told him they might not even get out of their group.
But whether you’re just hoping your sweepstake pick has a chance, you want a cheeky tenner on someone to do something or you want to lump on hundreds or thousands over the next four weeks, here’s some idea of what to do with your money.
I’ve scanned all the World Cup supplements that were written weeks ago, devoured the message boards, visited the gambling forums, analysed the odds, filled in results on several World Cup wallcharts and done all the hard work so you don’t have to.
This is how I see it unfolding.
To start with we’ve got 32 countries, who mathematically can all win the World Cup. Some – New Zealand (2500/1 to lift the trophy), North Korea and Algeria are there to just make up the numbers – while at the other end, Brazil and Spain are the two teams that everyone’s talking about.
There’s always going to be a shock – someone will fail to qualify from their group (like France in 2002) and someone will roll up in the semi-finals without a cordial invite (remember South Korea and Turkey made it there in 2002, Croatia in 1998 and both Bulgaria and Sweden in USA ‘94).
But as the tournament stars it either seems you fancy five times winners Brazil or perennial dark horses Spain who’ve never made it to the final.
Both have dipped in and out of being favourites in the last few weeks but, 24 hours before the tournament starts, Spain are generally a tad shorter than Brazil. Both are around 4/1 to lift the trophy.
Despite the fact that Spain will go into the tournament as favourites, Brazil are the sensible choice as potential winners. A flick through the archives of previous World Cups proves one thing: Brazil win World Cups.
They’ve won five out of the 18 World Cups so far, picking up the trophy all over the globe – in Sweden, Japan/South Korea, the USA and Chile and they’ve won half the tournaments staged outside Europe.
Brazil won the trophy in 1994, eight years later in 2002 and eight years later we’re here in 2010 with a Brazilian team who won’t care about playing at altitude having come through a qualifying campaign that included cloud-stroking visits to Bolivia and Ecuador.
This Brazil side is managed by 1994 winning captain Dunga and the team is solid and workmanlike, as far away from the individual talent, yet erratic teams of the 1980s that always seemed to leak poor goals.
Any team with the likes of Maicon, Lucio and Dani Alves is going to be tough to score against – throw in a creative midfield spearheaded by Kaka and the potent finishing of Robinho and Luis Fabiano and the fact the Brazilians have a pretty cushy path to the last eight.
Spain have a pretty straight-forward group too, taking on Switzerland, Chile and Honduras but, beware. They could canter to victory in this group but in the next round they’ll almost certainly run into the runners-up in Group H, almost certainly Portugal or the Ivory Coast, maybe even Brazil. Not the easiest game to negotiate at that stage of the competition.
The Spanish are full of talented players but they just don’t do World Cups. They are probably the best team on paper, but so were Holland in 1974 and 1978 and arguably England in 1990.
Spain won Euro 2008 without really being tested, but then lost their first competitive game after that tournament against the USA in the Confederations Cup.
I wouldn’t deter anyone from backing Spain but think the price is too short and there is better value around.
So what of England?
Fabio Capello’s men are available at 8/1 to win the tournament with William Hill, Bet365 and Paddy Power, a figure that has been kept short by our nation’s bookmakers. If you take into account that England failed to qualify for Euro2008 and only made the last eight in Germany four years ago, their recent tournament pedigree is limited to say the least.
Portugal, who knocked England out of their last two tournaments are 33/1 with Tote Sport (because they may face Spain in the second round) but it doesn’t seem right that England are, technically four times more likely to win the tournament than the Portuguese.
England’s price has, though, slid in recent weeks, firstly after the unconvincing wins over Mexico and Japan and then due to Rio Ferdinand’s injury.
Spain and England are a way ahead of the rest of Europe in the betting but, like the rest of the six fancied European teams, they have some major flaws. If, like me, you don’t think a European team will win in South Africa, avoid the 4/9 with Bet 365 that they do, and instead go for the 9/4 with Stan James that it’s a team from South America.
Pele famously said he thought and African nation would win the World Cup by the end of the 20th century – that didn’t happen and it won’t this time either. Africa’s best nation are Egypt and they’re not even here – so the 17/2 with Betfair that an African team doesn’t get out of the group stage is worth taking – I’ve been through the groups and I can’t see any of the six advancing – only Ivory Coast have a sniff, but the loss of Didier Drogba could all but end their chances of getting past Portugal and taking that second spot behind Brazil.
Holland (10/1), Germany (14/1), Italy (16/1) and France (22/1) are the other European sides traditionally fancied – one of them has appeared in every final since 1966 and it’s the Dutch who are the hot tip right now.
Despite Arjen Robben’s injury at the weekend, the price on Holland has come in from around 18/1 at the start of the year to a nice 11/1. Holland keep it tight at the back, are extremely talented in midfield. If only they had another quality striker to take the heat off of Robin van Persie, I would have probably tipped them to win it.
Robben will miss the Dutch opener against Denmark on Monday but should be fit for their remaining games and certainly an adventurous and stylish Holland offer more potential than France who are marshalled by crazy Raymond Domenech, Marcello Lippi’s ageing Italy and the Germans who have been hit by a series of injuries.
But I suggest you avoid the big European six, place your money on a winner to come from South America at 9/4 and if you want to have a decent bet on the eventual winner of the tournament, then do as I have done and get your money on the team that strikes me as obvious winners - Argentina
Yes, Argentina!
What could be worse for an English man than to tip Argentina to win the tournament? Why, because that means they’ll almost certainly be eliminating England, possibly at the semi-final stage.
So why Argentina? Well they have all the components of a World Cup winner to me. They struggled to qualify for this campaign, needing to win a play-off against Uruguay to reach South Africa (they were only a minute away from elimination, just like they were in qualifying for the 1986 World Cup), but now they’ve made it and have been drawn into a pretty easy group.
I don’t see Nigeria, South Korea and Greece proving too much for Diego Maradona’s men, and their path into the last four looks straight-forward too.
They do have the Maradona factor that could be a massive help or a massive hindrance – but under the tutelage of Carlos Bilardo who led the team to 1986 glory, he has good support.
They’ve got history on their side – Brazil waited 24 years for World Cup glory after Pele led them to the 1974 World Cup so 24 years on from Maradona’s inspirational Mexico tournament that’s a good omen.
The Albiceleste’s back four is experienced and tight, the midfield strong and gritty, and going forward there are few better teams: Messi, Tevez, Milito, Higain, Aguero and Aimar is a potent list of goalscorers and the beautifully named Angel di Maria could prove to be a star of this World Cup.
So what are the pitfalls in backing Argentina? Well, they did struggle to qualify and had terrible defeats (a 6-1 stinker in Bolivia sticks out) but it is the Maradona factor that is most cited by their many opposers.
Of course backing Argentina has a certain unpredictability about it given their coach, but they are able to get out of their group without too much trouble and should negotiate the next two rounds which would see them in the semi-finals. From then on of course it’s hard to call, but then gambling is all about some element of risk.
Argentina are sure to be the story of this World Cup and I am backing them all the way. The combination of Maradona and Messi could explode or implode, but they’ll play some lovely football, have absurd talent and will provide all the drama. Given those last three factors, having a winning punt on a team that promises that will be far more fulfilling then backing any other.

NICK’S PICKArgentina to win the World Cup,
Coral, 7/1