The countdown to the new season is on - here are my picks for League One and League Two.
Cast your mind back 12 months and Leeds were sitting pretty as runaway 4/1 favourites to take the League One crown, and after a sublime autumn they were as short as 1/5 for the title at Christmas. That was when Norwich clicked into gear and the Canaries – who were as large as 12/1 after their opening day hammering from Colchester took over and took the honours.
Cast in the Leeds role this year are Southampton, one of a number of clubs who wear striped shirts that are destined to have a good season - and it’s not hard to see why with the south coast club.
Like Leeds they had their first season in the third tier for many years compromised by a points penalty but the Saints did well last season to make it to the top half and in the end the play-off places were just touch out of reach.
They’re an even shorter price than Leeds, starting the season at just 5/2 to make a return to the second tier after two seasons away from it.
Like last season, Southampton boast the favourite to be top scorer in Rickie Lambert and it’s not difficult to see him making mincemeat out of the opposing defenders, particularly considering the quality of opposition at the bottom of the League One table.
Lambert is just 9/2 with Sky Bet to be top scorer, but I fancy his strike partner Lee Barnard to get in on the goals and the 10/1 on the former Southend man looks a good price.
It could turn out to be a straight shoot out between these two for the top scorer prize and with Lambert longer odds to be top scorer than the Saints are to win the division, you’ve got to feel the value is in taking him at 9/2 rather than the team at 5/2.
Put it this way, I can’t see one happening without the other and Southampton’s rich attacking talent is certainly going to put them in the top three next season.
Sheffield Wednesday are available at 6/1 at Victor Chandler and although they play in stripes, I don’t see them putting in much of a challenge and fellow relegated sides Peterborough (12/1) and Plymouth (18/1) can forget it too.
A side I do like again are a team I backed last season and that’s, stripe-wearing Huddersfield. The Terriers are a nice 8/1 shot and they were one of the most impressive teams I saw play last time out.
Manager Lee Clark hasn’t got a bad team on his hands and a player I like is Lee Novak. Geordie Novak netted 12 goals last season for the free-scoring club – and when you factor in the goal threat of Theo Robinson and Jordan Rhodes you start to see a team that can do damage.
Norwich won the league last season with an impressive three-pronged attack of Wes Hoolahan, Grant Holt and Chris Martin and Huddersfield boast similar strike power.
Novak incidentally is a 25/1 shot to be top scorer making him a decent each way bet with Sky Bet who pay out on four places. Rhodes, a man familiar to Ipswich fans, isn’t a bad shout at 14/1.
I’ll be backing Huddersfield for the title as my main bet and having a sensible punt on Southampton to get the stake back on the Terriers. Southampton are going to be incredibly strong at home and are rightly favourites – but as we saw last season that favourites tag is a heavy burden for some.
There has been a history of longer odds teams winning this league in recent seasons – over the last six years the Champions have been an average of 18/1 for the title before a ball is kicked so for an outsider I’m plumping for the resurgent stripe-wearing Brighton.
Under the guidance of Gus Poyet, the Seagulls were a stable side last season and they’re sure to push on this time round. Bookies have wised up to the Poyet factor and made them as short as 10/1 for the title in some cases, although a more realistic 14/1 is generally available.
This is Brighton’s last season at the ghastly Withdean Stadium and the thinking is that when they take to the field at the new Falmer Stadium in August 2011, they could very well be in the Championship.
Stan James make the Seagulls 11/2 for promotion which I suggest backing. If they’re in the top half at Easter they’ve still got a chance at going up and compared to the likes of big-spending Notts County who are a similar price, they’ve got a lot more going for them.
County may have the cash, but Brighton have made good singings across the back four in solid Scottish defender Gordon Greer, Marcos Painter and Spaniard Inigo Calderon.
At the other end there are a whole host of teams who could drop down to the basement division – William Hill go around 9/4 on the likes of Dagenham, Exeter, Walsall, Hartlepool, Rochdale and Yeovil suggesting a real battle to stay up is on the cards.
One side I fancy to go down are Tranmere, who at 11/4 represent better odds. This whole thing with ex-physio Les Parry in charge doesn’t wash with me and a slow start for them could see Parry out and his successor left with a big task.
There’s usually a bigger team that struggles and, for a bit of fun I will be having a bit of the 8/1 on Charlton going down.
Having missed out on promotion last year they’ve paid the price by having their better players picked off by better teams, leaving Phil Parkinson’s men with a lot to do with a limited side. Nicky Bailey and Jonjo Shelvy have gone, they’ve got a tiny squad and they’ve boosted their defence by signing Norwich reject Gary Doherty!
Tough times for Parkinson indeed and a team to certainly consider backing to struggle. Believe it – they could very well go down.
Such are the odds in League Two this season that you can confidently back four or five teams and still make a profit. Last term I backed Rotherham, Bury, Rochdale and Notts County for the title so had plenty of interest throughout the season as that quartet spent most of the season inside the top six.
So who do you want as your big four this season?
Well with big-spending Notts County no longer a factor and free-scoring Rochdale gone, it’s Bradford again who are favourites for the title.
Peter Taylor’s team have been stuck in this basement division for the last four seasons but having recruited some decent players and finishing well last season, they’re worthy favourites at around 10/1. I’d suggest putting a quarter of your betting budget for this league on The Bantams – they’re the big fish in this league.
Relegated sides from League One struggled last time out, but this time I fancy both Gillingham and Wycombe, both formerly managed by Taylor, from the pack of sides at around 12/1 to bounce back.
Wycombe, now under the tutelage of QPR old boys Gary Waddock and Gareth Ainsworth, leaked goals in League One last season, but they play attractive football that should make them one of the best sides in this division to watch.
Plus they’ve been very busy in the transfer market, picking up new strikers Scott Rendell and Ben Strevens who are both highly valued in the lower leagues to add to the scoring power of main marksman Jon-Paul Pittman
Same goes for Gillingham, who are always strong at home. I’m putting another 25 per cent of my budget on these two teams. Gillingham’s main strike threat Simeon Jackson all but sealed a move to Norwich this week, but Canaries striker Cody McDonald is likely to go the other way in a one-year loan deal and, again, this really is a level he should shine at.
With Bradford, Gillingham and Wycombe backed, you’ll be looking at a decent payout if either takes the title, but split that last 25 per cent of your budget in half and have a punt on slightly longer shots Oxford (17/1) and Stevenage (18/1).
Oxford have the momentum coming into this league after their successful Blue Square Premier promotion last time out and Stevenage can continue the recent impact made by teams coming into League Two for the first time.
With those five teams backed, I think you’ll have plenty of interest all season long – and if favourites Bradford were to win for example, you’d still make a profit of seven times your stake.
Good luck!
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