The king is dead, long live the king.
Roger Federer is out of Wimbledon and I'm gutted though not really surprised.
Something's not quite right with old Roge at the moment and his three sets to one loss to Tomas Berdych was not pretty viewing.
Here's hoping Nadal wins it now, after all he's technically defending his title anyway!
Wednesday 30 June 2010
Friday 4 June 2010
Diego's boys to lift the World Cup
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BETTING and the World Cup go hand in hand this summer with an unprecedented amount of pounds, dollars, euros, yen and rand being staked on the tournament across the globe.
So far £13.4 million has been staked on Betfair on the World Cup winner – but that’s just one market at one bookies in one country.
Magnify that amount by at least 1,000 and you’ve got an idea how much will be staked this summer – it runs into the billions, certainly more than the GDP of most countries in the world.
But the World Cup is not just about betting on who you think will win. There are hundreds of different markets for the casual punter to get a little more serious about – and then there are office sweepstakes, fantasy football teams and just having a bet with your mates or colleagues – all forms of gambling and all which offer decent prizes.
I reckon 49 per cent of people in this country are just interested in the football, 49 per cent are more interested in making money and the other two per cent are probably just hoping their random sweepstake pull comes up trumps.
My brother Andrew, a man who last went to a football match in 1987, called me the other week all excited about the fact he had drawn France in his office sweepstake.
He looked a little miffed when I told him they’ve got no chance of winning it. He looked close to tears when I told him they might not even get out of their group.
But whether you’re just hoping your sweepstake pick has a chance, you want a cheeky tenner on someone to do something or you want to lump on hundreds or thousands over the next four weeks, here’s some idea of what to do with your money.
I’ve scanned all the World Cup supplements that were written weeks ago, devoured the message boards, visited the gambling forums, analysed the odds, filled in results on several World Cup wallcharts and done all the hard work so you don’t have to.
This is how I see it unfolding.
To start with we’ve got 32 countries, who mathematically can all win the World Cup. Some – New Zealand (2500/1 to lift the trophy), North Korea and Algeria are there to just make up the numbers – while at the other end, Brazil and Spain are the two teams that everyone’s talking about.
There’s always going to be a shock – someone will fail to qualify from their group (like France in 2002) and someone will roll up in the semi-finals without a cordial invite (remember South Korea and Turkey made it there in 2002, Croatia in 1998 and both Bulgaria and Sweden in USA ‘94).
But as the tournament stars it either seems you fancy five times winners Brazil or perennial dark horses Spain who’ve never made it to the final.
Both have dipped in and out of being favourites in the last few weeks but, 24 hours before the tournament starts, Spain are generally a tad shorter than Brazil. Both are around 4/1 to lift the trophy.
Despite the fact that Spain will go into the tournament as favourites, Brazil are the sensible choice as potential winners. A flick through the archives of previous World Cups proves one thing: Brazil win World Cups.
They’ve won five out of the 18 World Cups so far, picking up the trophy all over the globe – in Sweden, Japan/South Korea, the USA and Chile and they’ve won half the tournaments staged outside Europe.
Brazil won the trophy in 1994, eight years later in 2002 and eight years later we’re here in 2010 with a Brazilian team who won’t care about playing at altitude having come through a qualifying campaign that included cloud-stroking visits to Bolivia and Ecuador.
This Brazil side is managed by 1994 winning captain Dunga and the team is solid and workmanlike, as far away from the individual talent, yet erratic teams of the 1980s that always seemed to leak poor goals.
Any team with the likes of Maicon, Lucio and Dani Alves is going to be tough to score against – throw in a creative midfield spearheaded by Kaka and the potent finishing of Robinho and Luis Fabiano and the fact the Brazilians have a pretty cushy path to the last eight.
Spain have a pretty straight-forward group too, taking on Switzerland, Chile and Honduras but, beware. They could canter to victory in this group but in the next round they’ll almost certainly run into the runners-up in Group H, almost certainly Portugal or the Ivory Coast, maybe even Brazil. Not the easiest game to negotiate at that stage of the competition.
The Spanish are full of talented players but they just don’t do World Cups. They are probably the best team on paper, but so were Holland in 1974 and 1978 and arguably England in 1990.
Spain won Euro 2008 without really being tested, but then lost their first competitive game after that tournament against the USA in the Confederations Cup.
I wouldn’t deter anyone from backing Spain but think the price is too short and there is better value around.
So what of England?
Fabio Capello’s men are available at 8/1 to win the tournament with William Hill, Bet365 and Paddy Power, a figure that has been kept short by our nation’s bookmakers. If you take into account that England failed to qualify for Euro2008 and only made the last eight in Germany four years ago, their recent tournament pedigree is limited to say the least.
Portugal, who knocked England out of their last two tournaments are 33/1 with Tote Sport (because they may face Spain in the second round) but it doesn’t seem right that England are, technically four times more likely to win the tournament than the Portuguese.
England’s price has, though, slid in recent weeks, firstly after the unconvincing wins over Mexico and Japan and then due to Rio Ferdinand’s injury.
Spain and England are a way ahead of the rest of Europe in the betting but, like the rest of the six fancied European teams, they have some major flaws. If, like me, you don’t think a European team will win in South Africa, avoid the 4/9 with Bet 365 that they do, and instead go for the 9/4 with Stan James that it’s a team from South America.
Pele famously said he thought and African nation would win the World Cup by the end of the 20th century – that didn’t happen and it won’t this time either. Africa’s best nation are Egypt and they’re not even here – so the 17/2 with Betfair that an African team doesn’t get out of the group stage is worth taking – I’ve been through the groups and I can’t see any of the six advancing – only Ivory Coast have a sniff, but the loss of Didier Drogba could all but end their chances of getting past Portugal and taking that second spot behind Brazil.
Holland (10/1), Germany (14/1), Italy (16/1) and France (22/1) are the other European sides traditionally fancied – one of them has appeared in every final since 1966 and it’s the Dutch who are the hot tip right now.
Despite Arjen Robben’s injury at the weekend, the price on Holland has come in from around 18/1 at the start of the year to a nice 11/1. Holland keep it tight at the back, are extremely talented in midfield. If only they had another quality striker to take the heat off of Robin van Persie, I would have probably tipped them to win it.
Robben will miss the Dutch opener against Denmark on Monday but should be fit for their remaining games and certainly an adventurous and stylish Holland offer more potential than France who are marshalled by crazy Raymond Domenech, Marcello Lippi’s ageing Italy and the Germans who have been hit by a series of injuries.
But I suggest you avoid the big European six, place your money on a winner to come from South America at 9/4 and if you want to have a decent bet on the eventual winner of the tournament, then do as I have done and get your money on the team that strikes me as obvious winners - Argentina
Yes, Argentina!
What could be worse for an English man than to tip Argentina to win the tournament? Why, because that means they’ll almost certainly be eliminating England, possibly at the semi-final stage.
So why Argentina? Well they have all the components of a World Cup winner to me. They struggled to qualify for this campaign, needing to win a play-off against Uruguay to reach South Africa (they were only a minute away from elimination, just like they were in qualifying for the 1986 World Cup), but now they’ve made it and have been drawn into a pretty easy group.
I don’t see Nigeria, South Korea and Greece proving too much for Diego Maradona’s men, and their path into the last four looks straight-forward too.
They do have the Maradona factor that could be a massive help or a massive hindrance – but under the tutelage of Carlos Bilardo who led the team to 1986 glory, he has good support.
They’ve got history on their side – Brazil waited 24 years for World Cup glory after Pele led them to the 1974 World Cup so 24 years on from Maradona’s inspirational Mexico tournament that’s a good omen.
The Albiceleste’s back four is experienced and tight, the midfield strong and gritty, and going forward there are few better teams: Messi, Tevez, Milito, Higain, Aguero and Aimar is a potent list of goalscorers and the beautifully named Angel di Maria could prove to be a star of this World Cup.
So what are the pitfalls in backing Argentina? Well, they did struggle to qualify and had terrible defeats (a 6-1 stinker in Bolivia sticks out) but it is the Maradona factor that is most cited by their many opposers.
Of course backing Argentina has a certain unpredictability about it given their coach, but they are able to get out of their group without too much trouble and should negotiate the next two rounds which would see them in the semi-finals. From then on of course it’s hard to call, but then gambling is all about some element of risk.
Argentina are sure to be the story of this World Cup and I am backing them all the way. The combination of Maradona and Messi could explode or implode, but they’ll play some lovely football, have absurd talent and will provide all the drama. Given those last three factors, having a winning punt on a team that promises that will be far more fulfilling then backing any other.
NICK’S PICKArgentina to win the World Cup,
Coral, 7/1
So far £13.4 million has been staked on Betfair on the World Cup winner – but that’s just one market at one bookies in one country.
Magnify that amount by at least 1,000 and you’ve got an idea how much will be staked this summer – it runs into the billions, certainly more than the GDP of most countries in the world.
But the World Cup is not just about betting on who you think will win. There are hundreds of different markets for the casual punter to get a little more serious about – and then there are office sweepstakes, fantasy football teams and just having a bet with your mates or colleagues – all forms of gambling and all which offer decent prizes.
I reckon 49 per cent of people in this country are just interested in the football, 49 per cent are more interested in making money and the other two per cent are probably just hoping their random sweepstake pull comes up trumps.
My brother Andrew, a man who last went to a football match in 1987, called me the other week all excited about the fact he had drawn France in his office sweepstake.
He looked a little miffed when I told him they’ve got no chance of winning it. He looked close to tears when I told him they might not even get out of their group.
But whether you’re just hoping your sweepstake pick has a chance, you want a cheeky tenner on someone to do something or you want to lump on hundreds or thousands over the next four weeks, here’s some idea of what to do with your money.
I’ve scanned all the World Cup supplements that were written weeks ago, devoured the message boards, visited the gambling forums, analysed the odds, filled in results on several World Cup wallcharts and done all the hard work so you don’t have to.
This is how I see it unfolding.
To start with we’ve got 32 countries, who mathematically can all win the World Cup. Some – New Zealand (2500/1 to lift the trophy), North Korea and Algeria are there to just make up the numbers – while at the other end, Brazil and Spain are the two teams that everyone’s talking about.
There’s always going to be a shock – someone will fail to qualify from their group (like France in 2002) and someone will roll up in the semi-finals without a cordial invite (remember South Korea and Turkey made it there in 2002, Croatia in 1998 and both Bulgaria and Sweden in USA ‘94).
But as the tournament stars it either seems you fancy five times winners Brazil or perennial dark horses Spain who’ve never made it to the final.
Both have dipped in and out of being favourites in the last few weeks but, 24 hours before the tournament starts, Spain are generally a tad shorter than Brazil. Both are around 4/1 to lift the trophy.
Despite the fact that Spain will go into the tournament as favourites, Brazil are the sensible choice as potential winners. A flick through the archives of previous World Cups proves one thing: Brazil win World Cups.
They’ve won five out of the 18 World Cups so far, picking up the trophy all over the globe – in Sweden, Japan/South Korea, the USA and Chile and they’ve won half the tournaments staged outside Europe.
Brazil won the trophy in 1994, eight years later in 2002 and eight years later we’re here in 2010 with a Brazilian team who won’t care about playing at altitude having come through a qualifying campaign that included cloud-stroking visits to Bolivia and Ecuador.
This Brazil side is managed by 1994 winning captain Dunga and the team is solid and workmanlike, as far away from the individual talent, yet erratic teams of the 1980s that always seemed to leak poor goals.
Any team with the likes of Maicon, Lucio and Dani Alves is going to be tough to score against – throw in a creative midfield spearheaded by Kaka and the potent finishing of Robinho and Luis Fabiano and the fact the Brazilians have a pretty cushy path to the last eight.
Spain have a pretty straight-forward group too, taking on Switzerland, Chile and Honduras but, beware. They could canter to victory in this group but in the next round they’ll almost certainly run into the runners-up in Group H, almost certainly Portugal or the Ivory Coast, maybe even Brazil. Not the easiest game to negotiate at that stage of the competition.
The Spanish are full of talented players but they just don’t do World Cups. They are probably the best team on paper, but so were Holland in 1974 and 1978 and arguably England in 1990.
Spain won Euro 2008 without really being tested, but then lost their first competitive game after that tournament against the USA in the Confederations Cup.
I wouldn’t deter anyone from backing Spain but think the price is too short and there is better value around.
So what of England?
Fabio Capello’s men are available at 8/1 to win the tournament with William Hill, Bet365 and Paddy Power, a figure that has been kept short by our nation’s bookmakers. If you take into account that England failed to qualify for Euro2008 and only made the last eight in Germany four years ago, their recent tournament pedigree is limited to say the least.
Portugal, who knocked England out of their last two tournaments are 33/1 with Tote Sport (because they may face Spain in the second round) but it doesn’t seem right that England are, technically four times more likely to win the tournament than the Portuguese.
England’s price has, though, slid in recent weeks, firstly after the unconvincing wins over Mexico and Japan and then due to Rio Ferdinand’s injury.
Spain and England are a way ahead of the rest of Europe in the betting but, like the rest of the six fancied European teams, they have some major flaws. If, like me, you don’t think a European team will win in South Africa, avoid the 4/9 with Bet 365 that they do, and instead go for the 9/4 with Stan James that it’s a team from South America.
Pele famously said he thought and African nation would win the World Cup by the end of the 20th century – that didn’t happen and it won’t this time either. Africa’s best nation are Egypt and they’re not even here – so the 17/2 with Betfair that an African team doesn’t get out of the group stage is worth taking – I’ve been through the groups and I can’t see any of the six advancing – only Ivory Coast have a sniff, but the loss of Didier Drogba could all but end their chances of getting past Portugal and taking that second spot behind Brazil.
Holland (10/1), Germany (14/1), Italy (16/1) and France (22/1) are the other European sides traditionally fancied – one of them has appeared in every final since 1966 and it’s the Dutch who are the hot tip right now.
Despite Arjen Robben’s injury at the weekend, the price on Holland has come in from around 18/1 at the start of the year to a nice 11/1. Holland keep it tight at the back, are extremely talented in midfield. If only they had another quality striker to take the heat off of Robin van Persie, I would have probably tipped them to win it.
Robben will miss the Dutch opener against Denmark on Monday but should be fit for their remaining games and certainly an adventurous and stylish Holland offer more potential than France who are marshalled by crazy Raymond Domenech, Marcello Lippi’s ageing Italy and the Germans who have been hit by a series of injuries.
But I suggest you avoid the big European six, place your money on a winner to come from South America at 9/4 and if you want to have a decent bet on the eventual winner of the tournament, then do as I have done and get your money on the team that strikes me as obvious winners - Argentina
Yes, Argentina!
What could be worse for an English man than to tip Argentina to win the tournament? Why, because that means they’ll almost certainly be eliminating England, possibly at the semi-final stage.
So why Argentina? Well they have all the components of a World Cup winner to me. They struggled to qualify for this campaign, needing to win a play-off against Uruguay to reach South Africa (they were only a minute away from elimination, just like they were in qualifying for the 1986 World Cup), but now they’ve made it and have been drawn into a pretty easy group.
I don’t see Nigeria, South Korea and Greece proving too much for Diego Maradona’s men, and their path into the last four looks straight-forward too.
They do have the Maradona factor that could be a massive help or a massive hindrance – but under the tutelage of Carlos Bilardo who led the team to 1986 glory, he has good support.
They’ve got history on their side – Brazil waited 24 years for World Cup glory after Pele led them to the 1974 World Cup so 24 years on from Maradona’s inspirational Mexico tournament that’s a good omen.
The Albiceleste’s back four is experienced and tight, the midfield strong and gritty, and going forward there are few better teams: Messi, Tevez, Milito, Higain, Aguero and Aimar is a potent list of goalscorers and the beautifully named Angel di Maria could prove to be a star of this World Cup.
So what are the pitfalls in backing Argentina? Well, they did struggle to qualify and had terrible defeats (a 6-1 stinker in Bolivia sticks out) but it is the Maradona factor that is most cited by their many opposers.
Of course backing Argentina has a certain unpredictability about it given their coach, but they are able to get out of their group without too much trouble and should negotiate the next two rounds which would see them in the semi-finals. From then on of course it’s hard to call, but then gambling is all about some element of risk.
Argentina are sure to be the story of this World Cup and I am backing them all the way. The combination of Maradona and Messi could explode or implode, but they’ll play some lovely football, have absurd talent and will provide all the drama. Given those last three factors, having a winning punt on a team that promises that will be far more fulfilling then backing any other.
NICK’S PICKArgentina to win the World Cup,
Coral, 7/1
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